Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-09 2.842309 3.921440 5.475849 7.965502 1.203048e+01 18.757645 3.158726e+01
2025-03-16 1.832972 2.915338 4.805278 8.644298 1.714922e+01 38.005989 1.071456e+02
2025-03-23 1.308134 2.335948 4.449561 9.799438 2.604912e+01 90.089511 5.923150e+02
2025-03-30 0.961527 1.889264 4.084688 10.901008 3.965346e+01 245.295997 8.815738e+03
2025-04-06 0.679828 1.429214 3.394142 10.549927 5.072380e+01 597.904166 1.763425e+06
2025-04-13 0.486217 1.075524 2.747903 9.681613 5.994933e+01 1477.359687 NaN
2025-04-20 0.386823 0.907315 2.528945 10.429535 9.201762e+01 9594.484636 NaN
2025-04-27 0.326090 0.812922 2.488797 12.298266 1.732674e+02 899019.879532 NaN
2025-05-04 0.280805 0.741302 2.487093 14.841535 3.734063e+02 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 0.236689 0.652457 2.350917 16.404084 7.348433e+02 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 0.192828 0.545214 2.050451 15.783248 1.077914e+03 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 0.156422 0.449539 1.738379 14.289571 1.337028e+03 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 0.135673 0.403847 1.660079 15.846882 3.454397e+03 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 0.117744 0.361187 1.566314 17.155242 1.024206e+04 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 0.104616 0.331554 1.525539 19.607099 6.257869e+04 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 0.093036 0.303353 1.471319 21.966648 1.109198e+06 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 0.079871 0.263644 1.308586 20.911948 1.194931e+07 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 0.068128 0.226181 1.134970 18.740528 8.237907e+07 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 0.061447 0.208315 1.087940 20.309376 NaN NaN NaN
2025-07-20 0.057131 0.199252 1.099605 24.517471 NaN NaN NaN
2025-07-27 0.053582 0.192347 1.124098 30.484130 NaN NaN NaN
2025-08-03 0.049289 0.180378 1.096003 34.196496 NaN NaN NaN
2025-08-10 0.044046 0.162149 0.997186 32.534515 NaN NaN NaN